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Enforcement publicity may lack context, and some settlements may involve errors rather than systemic recklessness. But the sector cannot control how its opponents use these cases. It can only reduce the supply.
At a moment when the industry needs to persuade politicians that regulated gambling is capable of managing risk responsibly, repeated failures in long-established areas such as AML and safer gambling amount to political self-harm.
The Commission may sometimes load the gun, but operators keep providing the ammunition.
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However, LSR noted that traditional game outcomes are no longer reliable indicators of bookmaker profitability, largely due to the rapid growth of same-game parlays and player props.
In the Las Vegas-based Circa Survivor contest, which drew over 25,000 entries entering Week 1, more than 8,000 entries were eliminated in the opening slate—most knocked out when the 8.5-point favorite Chargers fell to the Cardinals. That upset served as a proxy for the wider market, ruining countess parlay tickets across major sportsbooks.
Looking ahead to Week 2, bettors continue to chase high-scoring games. At BetMGM, Overs represent three of the five most-bet game totals by ticket count: Vikings-Bears (Over 48), Saints-Ravens (Over 46), and Panthers-Falcons (Over 44).
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“We expect new products such as KPI markets, which allow users to trade a single corporate metric, such as production, deliveries, or subscriber growth, rather than the stock price itself,” observe the analysts. “Further, perp futures are expanding from crypto to commodities and single stock perps.”
Some exchange operators already filed plans to introduce KPI-linked event contracts. Those derivatives would be tied to metrics such as corporate earnings or, in more nuanced cases, Apple iPhone shipments or Tesla deliveries — just two examples — in a given quarter.
While sports event contracts remain the headline-grabbers for prediction market operators, there’s evidence that other categories are experiencing growth. As Bernstein points out, cryptocurrency event contracts account for at least 20% of the turnover on the two largest prediction markets.
