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“Of course there’s already a filing for daily leveraged futures baseball ETFs — which are basically the equivalent of a corked bat with eight holes drilled in the handle that’s been dipped in pine tar,” wrote Ben Johnson, head of client solutions at Morningstar, on X.
As of yet, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) hasn’t approved the aforementioned NHL futures ETFs.
For the right audience, likely professional traders and sophisticated retail investors, the CME futures on FutureSports indexes could amount to “Goldilocks” offerings because the derivatives aren’t standard sports bets nor are they carbon copies of the event contracts traded on prediction markets.
How to play Ice Lobster
Meanwhile the government has been approaching the issue via a new bill. Sports minister Sadok Mourali said in November 2024 that a gambling and sports betting bill had been circulated for consultation. Twenty-six public institutions received that consultation, including the central bank, Competition Council and financial intelligence authority.
A year later he said the draft had been completely revised to bring it into line with international standards on sports betting manipulation and money laundering.
The text has not been published. It is not known whether it would allow private operators to be licensed or simply modernise Promosport’s monopoly. Mourali told a parliamentary committee in November 2025 that a new law would digitise sports betting.
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Japan’s ability to lure back the world’s biggest casino developers will hinge on the regulatory framework the government unveils later this year, says Klebanow.
If it strikes a more reasonable balance that encourages economic development, “you will see the world’s best casino operators submit proposals”, he says. The government, he adds, must show it is prepared to give developers enough room to manage the risks of committing billions of dollars in capital.
Klebanow remains cautious about the commercial prospects of Japan’s emerging IR market, particularly given the tight limits on gaming capacity. With only five casinos ultimately envisaged, he argues that the number of gaming machines and tables will be modest relative to Japan’s population, making it “very safe to assume” that gambling will be socially and physically contained.
