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Potentially boding well for the Macquarie forecast are at least two factors. First, there are signs of turnover increases across a variety of yes/no exchanges. Second, volume surged to start September with those spikes arriving even before the NFL season kicked off.
As Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon points out, prediction markets generated $4.3 billion in taker volume during the first week of September without any help from the NFL, building on momentum from the 2026 World Cup. However, the NFL’s impact was immediate, with taker volume hitting a daily record during Week 1 of the campaign.
With all that in mind, it’s not surprising that Macquarie expects sports event contracts will drive approximately 80% of taker volume this year, but Beynon sees other categories growing over the long term.
About Jurassic Island 2
Kalshi’s compliance department uncovered a series of large trades made by Santos throughout February 2026 involving contracts that would pay out based on whether he attended the State of the Union address on 24 February.
The exchange reported that Santos then issued public statements regarding his attendance, some deemed false or misleading, that were deliberately aimed at influencing the price of “Yes” or “No” contracts connected to his attendance.
Kalshi stated that these statements successfully moved market prices and that Santos realised profits totalling $17,839.57 from the trades. After detecting Santos’ trades, Kalshi froze his account then referred the matter to federal authorities, NPR reported.
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According to the system used to rank players on the PGSI, a score of 0 or between 1 and 3 is considered low-risk, while scoring between 3 and 7 suggests moderate risk, and a score of 8 or higher represents problem gambling.
Although many industry commentators have pushed back against the GSGB and methods used in the survey to determine the scale of problem gambling in the UK.
The committee identified the Gambling Act 2005 as the moment when licensed operators gained broad advertising freedoms across media. Prior to 2005, television and radio gambling advertising was limited to products like bingo, football pools and the National Lottery.
