Bubble Shooter

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Lottomatica and Cirsa have agreed a blockbuster merger that would create the second-largest listed gaming and sports betting operator in the world.

Announced on Wednesday, the all-share deal is expected to close in Q2 2027, forming a combined group with a pro forma adjusted EBITDA of around €2 billion ($2.3 billion).

Cirsa’s implied pro forma value, before synergies, corresponds to an multiple of approximately 6x its expected 2026 EV/EBITDA which will be between €800 million and €820 million, according to the operator’s most recent earnings.

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However, punters can still get their betting fix through the country’s official toto system, which offers authorised products covering soccer and basketball.

Under Japan’s penal code any betting that creates the possibility of gaining or losing property on a matter whose “outcome depends upon chance” may constitute gambling.

Online gambling more broadly remains illegal, with no sign of legalisation in either the short or long term. If anything, the government appears to be moving further away from the activity, and is actively considering website blocking to prevent illegal gambling in the country.

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That estimate arrives courtesy of Macquarie and is well ahead of the research firm’s previous estimate of $169 billion in 2026 taker volume.

Takers is a prediction market industry colloquialism for the market participants that swiftly fill buy and sell orders, thus removing liquidity from the marketplace. Conversely, makers are the market participants viewed as liquidity providers and professional or sharp money.

“Recent launches, including customizable same-game parlays (SGPs), further support our view that Prediction Markets (PM) are increasingly converging with traditional sportsbooks,” observes Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon. “As a result, we now estimate total US PM taker volume to reach $190 billion in 2026E (vs $169 billion prior).”